Reference pace is the anchor the coach uses to set today's targets. It is a single number — your estimated 2K split, or its nearest equivalent at your current fitness — that lets the model translate a vague goal like 'a steady aerobic row' into a specific instruction like 'hold 2:24 at rate 22.' Reference pace is anchored to your best recent test result and updated as new sessions accumulate. Confidence is the second number: a tightly-scoped history with several recent tests gives the coach high confidence; a sparse history or a stale test widens the confidence band and the coach becomes more cautious about pace targets. When your history is thin, the coach will lean on rate caps and effort language ('you should still be able to speak in full sentences by minute 8') rather than a single hard split. This is the article that explains why the same goal can produce different targets on two consecutive days.
Key points
- Reference pace is your estimated 2K split — the anchor for every pace target the coach writes.
- Confidence rises as more recent tests accumulate and falls when history is thin or stale.
- When confidence is low, the coach leans on rate caps and effort language instead of a hard split.
- A new 2K, 5K, or steady test tightens confidence faster than any other input you can give.
- If the target on Monday felt too easy and the target on Friday felt too hard, confidence is the missing piece.
Sources and further reading
- Concept2 — Workout of the Day and pace boats— Reference for how pace boats and steady-state targets are anchored in real testing data.
- British Rowing — Go Row Indoor: Pacing— Plain-language pacing guidance for indoor rowers, used to anchor effort language in the coach.
- Pete Plan — Testing and reference pace— How the Pete Plan uses a small number of tests to anchor progressive targets.